Model predicts ‘shelf life’ for library and archival collections

Heritage scientists at UCL have developed demographic models of decay and loss to predict when a large library or archival collection might age beyond repair.

Lead author, Professor Matija Strlic (UCL Institute for Sustainable Heritage) explained "Although some materials might easily survive thousands of years, some have internal clocks triggering faster decay. Using the demographic models, we can now easily predict how much more degradation will be induced by a hotter and more humid climate of the future, and perhaps more importantly, how this can be mitigated."

The three part report 'Damage Function for Historic Paper' published in Heritage Science explores what makes an historical paper unfit for use, the degradation of historical documents due to handling, and how heritage resources can be managed and stored with more economical and environmental sustainability.

Read the full press release